A study published in npj Urban Sustainability has focused on the consequences of climate change and rising sea levels. This study, carried out by a group of researchers from McGill University, focuses especially on the Global South, including the coasts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America. According to one of the study’s co-authors, Eric Galbraith, rising sea levels will affect all individuals, whether they live near the sea or not. Meanwhile, Natalya Gomez, a geophysicist and author of the study, explains that this is a consequence of climate change and that it will continue to grow for centuries if the burning of fossil fuels does not cease.
The levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere are higher today than they were 4 million years ago, which has consequences such as rising sea levels and adverse weather events. The ecologist from the University of McGill study, Jeff Cardille, emphasized the amount of coastal infrastructure that would be at risk with rising sea levels. According to the researchers, this study not only serves to measure the risks to which coastal infrastructures are exposed, but also to help urban planners develop more sustainable urban planning in light of the reality faced by our planet and our coasts.
Sea level rise
We tend to focus on adverse weather events as a direct result of climate change, but the truth is that there are many other disastrous consequences. This is highlighted in a study published in npj Urban Sustainability, conducted by a group of researchers from McGill University. The study has focused on representing sea level rise in built environments in the Global South, covering the coasts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America, thanks to the use of innovations in remote sensing and machine learning, as well as new high-resolution topographic data and building footprint information.
According to an Earth scientist from McGill University and co-author of the study, Eric Galbraith, “Each of us will be affected by climate change and sea level rise, whether we live near the ocean or not. We all depend on goods, food, and fuels that pass through ports and coastal infrastructure exposed to rising sea levels. Disruption of this essential infrastructure could wreak havoc on our globally interconnected economy and food system”.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
Today’s atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are much higher than they were 4 million years ago, before modern humans even existed. According to geophysicist and co-author of the study, Natalya Gomez, “The rise in sea level is a slow but unstoppable consequence of warming that is already affecting coastal populations and will continue for centuries. People often talk about sea level rise in terms of tens of centimeters, or maybe a meter, but in reality it could continue rising by many meters if we do not quickly stop burning fossil fuels”.
Study basis
Through satellite data and detailed elevation maps, three scenarios for local sea level rise were considered, covering 840 million buildings across the Global South.Elevation of 0.5 meters. Researchers found that approximately 3 million buildings would be flooded by coastal inundations.Elevation of 5 meters. More than 80 percent of the building stock in some countries would be lost, totaling 45 million buildings.Elevation of 20 meters.
Over 130 million buildings would be flooded.According to McGill University ecologist and one of the study’s co-authors, Jeff Cardille, “We were surprised by the large number of buildings at risk due to the relatively modest long-term sea level rise. Some coastal countries are much more exposed than others, due to the details of coastal topography and the location of buildings”.
Usefulness of the study
The usefulness of this study lies not only in its ability to assess the risks arising from sea level rise on infrastructures, but also in serving as a guide to help urban planners minimize the risks of ongoing construction by promoting more sustainable coastal urban development. According to environmental scientist Maya Willard-Stepan, now at the University of Victoria in Canada, “It is impossible to escape at least a moderate amount of sea level rise. The sooner coastal communities can start planning, the greater their chances of continuing to thrive”.