The tax refunds can be something really exciting for many families in the states. And this 2026 refunds might seem even bigger than last year’s. IRS officials and analysts believe that devolutions will be higher for millions of people, because of new fiscal rules, deductions and one simple detail that many people didn’t take in account: the money deducted from your salary for taxes during the year.
All of this changes come from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which- changed some important parts of the tributary code and prepared the ground for a season of unusually generous declarations.
Why returns in 2026 could be bigger
A recent report from Piper Sandler suggests that the average refund could go up around $1000, taking the typical payment to more than $4000. For only one year, that jump is actually quite big. But how is this possible?
First of all, some taxes have being suspended from certain types of overtimes and tip revenues. That means it leaves more money to pay back when the declaration is filed. Second, the threshold to deduct state and local taxes went from $10.000 to $40.000. For those who live in areas where taxes are higher or they pay a lot of property tax, that change can make a big difference.
These rules apply retroactively to 2025, so their impact will be visible when people file their taxes in early 2026.
However, the main factor is that the majority of workers didn’t adjust their retention when the law changed. Withholding is the money that the employer sends directly to the IRS from each payroll, which in theory should be similar to what the person would have to pay at the end of the year. But in this case, many people kept the same retention the had before the reform because the new rules were difficult to calculate on the run.
From 2026, the IRS also confirmed that all refunds will be made electronically: Those who have a bank account will receive direct deposit, and those who do not, will have the option of a prepaid card.
When will the return arrive?
The IRS will start accepting electronic declarations from the end of January. Those who choose direct deposit might receive their payments between 10 an 21 days after (around mid February). However in order to avoid any kind of stress, it always best to prevision a little delay especially knowing that the agency has to adapt a few things; software updates, redesign forms and ensure that the new rules are applied correctly.
Those who claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Child Tax Credit often receive their money later, in many cases until the beginning of March. Federal law obliges the IRS to retain these returns until they fully verify that the person meets the requirements, to avoid errors and fraud.
The high season of presentation goes from the end of March until April 15 (the deadline). The declarations that come in that period can take a little longer to be processed because of the volume. For those who submit after the deadline, but still have a refund in favor, the money usually arrives approximately two weeks after the IRS accepts the declaration.
Who benefits the most and what it means for 2026
The new deduction structure mainly favors middle and medium-high income taxpayers, especially those who pay a lot of state and local taxes and can now deduct a larger part.
People with lower incomes may not notice a big change, because they already had smaller tax bills and can take less advantage of the increase in deduction caps. Those who earn more also face limits and reductions that shorten their access to some of the new advantages, so that their return may not grow as much.